The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Voter Demographics (9). Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. 2016 Election (1135) In their . This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Seriously. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. These are the bellwether counties. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. 10. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. In 2020, a single. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. "They followed through the whole four years. But it's also not unprecedented. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. What science tells us about the afterlife. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. It almost became religious.". Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. But that's no longer the case. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 6. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Found an error on our site? It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Watch Hampton City. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. But both are worth watching. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Until this year. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Their concerns are real. 108,000 people. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. 4. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. 3. TIP: Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Trump won 18 of the 19. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Not a bad streak. (i.e. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Free and open-source. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. The divisions were everywhere. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". In communities . These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. There are 391 such counties. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. 12. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Read about our approach to external linking. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. 2. Go on, look them up! Watauga has gone for. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. 8. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. 03:30. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Ron Elving . The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Want to dive deeper? They're just facts about the vote. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period.
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